I was just doing some computations today on my fingers and toes on the scale of the problem of replacing voice revenue at a hypothetical telco totally unrelated to my employer:
Assume you retain 100% of access fees, lose 100% of service fees. Assume wireless and wireline go 100% IP-based.
Some numeric prestidigitation means that on average you need to find $600m of new business EVERY YEAR for the next 17 years. This needs to be conjured up from completely new intermediary roles and new services: access revenue is already factored in. And this is just to stand still. Oh, and it’s front-loaded since most of the people who are motivated to leave because they’re paying a lot will leave in the early years. The last person with a pure circuit PSTN line will be a sad case indeed. So you’re probably looking at having to invent a new billion dollar business every year. Without fail.
Holy schmoly.
Posted by Martin Geddes at 12:13 AMTrackBack URL for this entry:
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A telco could enter the VoIP-world as well. I know of several who have been experimenting. But they did not start full-scale. Why should they? There were no threats yet.
I wonder how much they can make by entering into VoIP as well? Probably not 1 billion a year.
Posted by: at November 6, 2003 01:36 AMI like this article. This is the first time I have seen some simple maths. Many future telecom reveniue stats show revenues increasing.
Have you any rule of thumb that says $1 at todays voice revenue will be n cents on IP tiomrrow ?
Posted by: at December 26, 2003 04:14 PM