I've been lucky. I've never had my car break down somewhere remote, or on a freeway. Touch wood, things will stay that way -- but I never drive off without my phone with me, just in case. But why do I feel this way about my phone?
I was rcently watching some people talking about their cell phones, and someone made a comment that made me think. They noted that they needed a cell phone in their car, because nobody stops any more to help a stranded motorist. Now, there are many reasons why this could be so. Fear of strangers. Increasing complexity of cars making casual mechanical knowledge less relevant. But surely, a key factor must be simply the assumption that everyone else carries a cell phone, and a breakdown is no longer much of an emergency. More of an inconvenience.
So the pervasive use of cellular technology has caused a social change. It's the opposite of smart mobs: we no longer interact with good samaritan strangers, because our handsets beat a direct path to formal rescue. And who these days is often selling those roadside rescue packages to the security seekers? The phone companies, who spread their handsets into every sweaty palm in the first place.
In the same conversation, another person noted thathis elderly father wasn't interested in having a cell phone. He valued the control he has over who can access him -- simply go out for a walk, and he's disconnected from interruption. The man's father had always assumed that pay phones would be around if he needed to contact anyone. But this was increasingly no longer the case. And you can guess why -- again, pervasive use of cellular technology causes economic change. So some day this man's father will be squinting down at one of the latest undersized and overpowered products of the wireless industry, trying to make a phone call while out for a walk. And not because he wants to, but because he has to.
The pattern here is that mass adoption of a product can cause unintended consequences. If you are able to anticipate these macroscopic changes, you have a market opportunity. Hence the current fad for silent ring tones (paid for with real money!), to help cure the chirping during movies. Or even automatic muting of phones in public places.
Indeed, at what point does the spam killing market exceed the value of the (open source and free) email server market? The obesity drug market exceed the value of the chocolate gateaux and hamburger market? It is quite conceivable that the cure is a bigger market than the disease.
The billion dollar question is what social changes will occur with the arrival of pervasive broadband access? In particular, what are the ills of always-on access that will cause a stampede of product designed to protect your attention, privacy and sanity? And are the telcos smart enough to continue marketing the disease and the cure without getting hit with a backlash? Watch this space...
Posted by Martin Geddes at 7:20 AMTrackBack URL for this entry:
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