November 02, 2004

ABC Conference Day 1 Session 4

Sorry, late to the session, my panel over-ran. And couldn’t blog my own panel.

Peter Cochrane

My Life Bits. A record of your life. Now meeting a thousand people in a few months rather than a lifetime. A petabyte lifetime record.

P2P has been a massive change in the ecology of bits. But we haven’t yet seen C2B unleashed. Accellerating networks. Costs dropping exponentially, value going up exponentially. Going from companies to individuals. Profit margins for companies going down. Billing systems cost more than the service they are billing for. A waste of time.

[Amusing videos done by individuals. Examples of the empowered edge. You have to pay to come to conferences to see this bit.]

UK has no broadband anywhere and not in the lead on any scale.

500 kbits shared between 50 people isn’t broadband. Have to use alligator clips to subvert network to get online. Big telco fears (VoIP, mobile substitution of landline, move from 22% profit margin to 2% like Tesco). In Korea cannot have contention. Minimum 10Mb, planning on 10Gb in 2010.

Free WiFi hotspots. GBP4.5 for 15 minutes, or walk to end of block for free. Just need to know where they are. London at the top of the league for hotspots. Cities like San Jose probably higher. Will personally pay reasonable price. US: $9/day 6mbit, UK GBP4.50 for .5kbit. WiFi costs $1/day to provide. Soap and towels $6.50. UK has lost lead in computer games. Multi-player games. People pay even just to watch. Korea leads.

2006. 3G looks threatened.
2007. Telcos apandon local loop. Comunity networks take over. 2m km of dark fiber released into UK market. Free WiFi kills commercial providers.

Telepocalyptic!

2007, IT industry fights back. Smart network to hunt down worms, viruses, andti-hacker.

2007 worst fear for UK is companies and talented people leave in droves. Impossible to communicate and make wealth.

2007 greatest hope. Companies and talented people enabled. NEEDS BANDWIDTH!

2008, corporate IT and security goes the way of the typing pool. Young people bring their own equipment, and don’t trust IT to do anything.

2009 - Super iPod, every single music track ever recorded, in your pocket. “Holy Shit technology”. (2019 will have every movie.)

2004 have only 2Mbit home network. 2010 will have 1Gbit local loop and 2Tb of data. 2010, everything is IP access. Everything on the network. Video conferencing takes off.

2010 the hackers have jammers trying to disrupt radio, but have spread spectrum. The next generation of virus attacks. Radio spectrum.

Corporate life miserable. Enjoy yourself. Watch the movie. [Amazing blend of LOTR, Star Wars, et al., made in someone’s bedroom.] http://cochrane.org.uk/, http://conceptlabs.net/.

Posted by Martin Geddes at 05:32 PM
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