Techdirt reminded us last year how broadcast IPTV is a dumb idea, as the future's all in faster-than-real-time downloads. (Usual nod of head to Odlyzko for being a decade ahead of us all here.)
In future you'll only want to watch stuff that's gained a strong reputation for quality. But you won't know it's a quality offering until plenty of people have watched it and the data's been passed through the collaborative filters. Furthermore, anything that isn't live TV can be sent to your DRM'd video store awaiting the unlock key to be sent at the anointed viewing time.
Only a very small number of shows will have a reputation that precedes them. The recurring nature of sports events is one such example. A drama will have to have an exceptional star writer or actor to make a new series compelling in advance of its release. But drama is rarely live (possible future trend - ImprovTV?) so doesn't need real-time streaming.
Another small batch of programs will offer true interactivity, maybe via SMS if not something richer.
You have to ask yourself whether the current TV schedules of non-live, non-interactive programs make the slightest sense. The legacy technologies of broadcast and satellite TV might be plenty to absorb 90% of the demand for this kind of "right here, right now" TV. Expensive IMS-based bandwidth reservation systems look increasing irrelevant to the type of traffic that is actually likely to go over these networks.
I'd hate to be a programme scheduler in a TV broadcaster right now. In all industries, gatekeeping is a minimum-wage job -- where it isn't automated away.
Yet the profitless IPTV bandwagon rolls on...
Posted by Martin Geddes at 12:04 PMTrackBack URL for this entry:
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