Techdirt reminded us last year how broadcast IPTV is a dumb idea, as the future’s all in faster-than-real-time downloads. (Usual nod of head to Odlyzko for being a decade ahead of us all here.)
In future you’ll only want to watch stuff that’s gained a strong reputation for quality. But you won’t know it’s a quality offering until plenty of people have watched it and the data’s been passed through the collaborative filters. Furthermore, anything that isn’t live TV can be sent to your DRM’d video store awaiting the unlock key to be sent at the anointed viewing time.
Only a very small number of shows will have a reputation that precedes them. The recurring nature of sports events is one such example. A drama will have to have an exceptional star writer or actor to make a new series compelling in advance of its release. But drama is rarely live (possible future trend - ImprovTV?) so doesn’t need real-time streaming.
Another small batch of programs will offer true interactivity, maybe via SMS if not something richer.
You have to ask yourself whether the current TV schedules of non-live, non-interactive programs make the slightest sense. The legacy technologies of broadcast and satellite TV might be plenty to absorb 90% of the demand for this kind of “right here, right now” TV. Expensive IMS-based bandwidth reservation systems look increasing irrelevant to the type of traffic that is actually likely to go over these networks.
I’d hate to be a programme scheduler in a TV broadcaster right now. In all industries, gatekeeping is a minimum-wage job — where it isn’t automated away.
Yet the profitless IPTV bandwagon rolls on…
Posted by Martin Geddes at 12:04 PMTrackBack URL for this entry:
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I was with you until the DRM'd video store nonsense. Broadcast TV only works if everyone is watching the same thing at once; that is a flaw, not a benefit, which is why we buy PVR's. Replicating this flaw via DRM is pure value subtraction.
Posted by: at April 13, 2006 12:29 PMI simply could not agree more. The idea of needing multiple real time HD sized pipes is just dumb. I really don't get why the power of torrenting and swarming hasn't sunk in. Its just not that hard.
Probably another case of needing to believe.
Posted by: at April 13, 2006 10:02 PMGood ol' Andrew Odlyzko. :-) I first read that paper (Content is NOT King) a couple of years ago, and it has stuck in my mind not only through my IPTV work, but the net neutrality debate as well (the issues are more closely related than many people realize).
If Andrew's view of the economy around content is correct, it puts the request of the RBOC's to demand access fees from content providers and broadcasters in a hilarious light, as if they can afford access fees...they are practically giving away content as it is.
Or does it? Are the RBOC's playing up the fact that the only real value is in connectivity?
Posted by: at April 14, 2006 11:34 PMAnd Disney/ABC's move into free Internet distribution, on demand, advertising supported is another nail in the coffin.
http://news.com.com/2100-1034_3-6060306.html
At least one Telco has "been there, done that, lost the T-shirt," "Kingston Communications, the Hull-based telco, is pulling the plug on its broadband TV service because not enough people watch it."
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/02/27/kingston_iptv/
> Are the RBOC's playing up the fact that the only real value is in connectivity?
The only high-margin value is in scarcity, which is created by their last mile monopoly or wireless oligopoly, all which are weakening. In NZ the incumbent has announced a merger between wireline and wireless business groups. This event, like BTs MVNO BluePhone, is an acknowlegement that proprietary scarcity is the only way to keep up the margins.
Utility, AKA commodity, connectivity is worthy, reliable, but low margin, particularly as the wireless options grow in openness, standards, performance and availability.
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Yours Truly Aaron Keogh
Tel: 604-291-7727
E-mail: aaron@matrixstream.com
Website: www.matrixstream.com
Posted by: at April 15, 2006 04:37 PM