Telepocalypse

Profit buster?

Russell Buckley muses:

Analyst firm, In-Stat, forecasts that global shipments of mobile phones with wi-fi will hit 13.5 million in 2007, leap to 52.8 million in 2008, and surge to 136 million by 2010. […] But obviously, in comparison to the 2 billion phones in circulation, it’s not going to be a big problem in lost revenues for operators in the next 5 years.

That assumes that something like the Google paradigm-busting scenario doesn’t happen, of course.

OK, here’s how you paradigm-bust. Almost every stage of the telephone call experience is broken after a century of statis. Up-front, for example, you have social networking (find people to call), and directory service (know how to call them).

Directory service is broken, and badly. For example, go look at BT’s white pages search. You can look up phone numbers, but you can’t edit your details, add on extra means of contacting you. BT could be making revenue off collecting this data, and syndicating it to third parties with user consent. BT’s directory group is stuck in the mindset of the 800-page printed phone book, soggily dumped outside your door once a year. We’re in an interactive read-write era folks! Why can’t I append my picture to my directory entry, if I want to? Why can’t BT’s directory offer opaque telephony, where you can contact me — but you don’t get to know my number? Why can’t BT offer a “telemarketer” line to Martin, where it’s two pounds a minute to call, and we split the revenue? Anyone willing to pay might have something I’m interested in!

OK, back to Google and paradigm-busting. The US market for telephony is unusual in that it has a flat numbering space and “normal” termination charges for mobiles. So what should Google do? Offer a VoIP client which gives free calling to all US numbers. (I hope the prospectus for the Vonage IPO has a really detailed “risks” section — it’ll probably be about as long as a phone directory, too.) Google makes the money on processing your personal data.

For example, who you call, for how long, and who calls you back all creates an implicit social network. For those in the know, this spells M-O-N-E-Y. How much more effective are ads when they’re targeted at groups of people, not just individuals? We’re about to find out, maybe.

Think big, think disruptive, win big.