January 09, 2007

iPhonic

The good:

  • Visual voicemail will raise the bar. “Wireless data” will finally be about improving the core voice and messaging product. Everyone will have to match this, although the timescale will be 2-3 years, if not more.
  • The touch UI will enable new experiments in navigating social networks and personal data.
  • Easy conferencing for consumers will also become the norm (as it is with Skype).

The bad:

  • Battery life will suck. 5 hours talk or 16 of music sounds good… until you really do your sums. You always need a healthy amount of power left at close of play every day in your phone, because you never know when your day will unravel and you unexpectedly need every ounce of charge. This device cannot replace the iPod due to “charge anxiety”.
  • Same mistake as Microsoft — taking the PC to the handset, not growing a simple feature set upwards. Result: unaffordable to the mass market, because of the cost of finessing all the technology constraints with state-of-the-art components.
  • Doesn’t look robust enough for the hammering most mobiles take.
  • Insufficiently “disposable” for what ultimately is a fashion statement, and too expensive for an impulse buy. Nokia’s N800 at $399 could become $199 in 2 years, and that’s a gift buy for the couch web surfer.
  • Lack of keypad and haptic feedback will be a major turn-off to many users who aren’t impressed by technology for the sole sake of preserving sleekness.

The ugly:

  • The member has been inserted into an orifice, and it looks messy when you pull it out. (You go look it up.)

Overall:

Will sell well enough as a style statement, 1% market share will be tough. The thing to watch is how well the price holds up in retail. Also, basic execution issues of logistics, distribution and support will be harder than the iPod, and will test Apple severely. I don’t think Nokia or Morotola will be losing too much sleep on this — it’ll do everyone good to have the customer expectations and demand raised.

Maybe we need to wait for “iPhone Nano” for something usable and affordable to the mass market?

The real product story is Apple TV, which does end-run the carrier IPTV offerings, and ultimately could be far more significant (but only if the in-building wireless really screams along, and the carriers don’t reserve all the bandwidth for their proprietary TV).

Posted by Martin Geddes at 10:15 PM
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Comments

Some more for each category ( http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0060196/ :)

Il Buono
- undeniably sexy!
- OSX and its passionate developer community should ensure a healthy supply of free and low-cost widgets for the idle screen and beyond
- screen size and resolution should ensure healthy video consumption (but 'caveat navitas', since this will cane the battery even more than music)

Il Cattivo
- No UMTS/HSxPA, so music/video will really have to be sideloaded or wait for WIMAX
- the above may mean less operator discounting, since there will be no surge in data traffic from iTunes downloads and mobile TV over UMTS
- seems to have missed a trick with video Skype since there's no secondary front-mounted camera
- Regarding the supposed fragility, it may be aerial damage that causes problems, Apple having experience in screen and chassis protection with the Nano.

Il Brutto
- have they resolved the issue of the iPhone name copyright?


Posted by: at January 10, 2007 10:08 AM

I guess it is a good sign that the iPhone inspires many different and strong opinions.

I also see it as not mass market capable, and it will stay like that for a few years - chearper "nano" version won't solve it.
Technology base is just too expensive, and the computer approach with 1-3 models + SW upgrades (Jobs hinted at that) doesn't fit to the fashion driven needs for dozens of models with few months product cycle.

But I could see the iPhone becoming a "must have" gadget for a certain segment - which may bring enough high margins for Apple to offset their lack of volumes compared to the traditional handset vendors.

I think the most decisive factor in the product design will be whether the "multi-touch" UI can really meet the harsh reality of phone usage: one-handed (Jobs used always both hands in the demo), half-blind (while walking or driving), blind (while in the pocket or under the school bench), wearing gloves or with sweaty or sticky fingers.
My first emotional impression when seeing the demo was "better not drop that precious gem".

Improving voice mail misses the point, at least from my Finnish perspective, where voicemail is a declining and annoying "legacy" (substituted by SMS).
But Apple and Cingular do that specifically for the US market, where I can see its value.

Posted by: at January 10, 2007 11:24 AM

Martin, I agree with most of your points, as well as some comments I have read so far. However, a few additional comments:

1. The first IPOD had a difficult start, battery life, expensive etc ... but the Apple developpers have the capabilties to turn new product / improvements relatively quickly. Look at the IPOD family today. They also become affordable whilst it wasn't at the beginning.
2. True, they have ported OSX onto a mobile phone - but hey, this is the best operating system! Personnaly, I believe that this will be more stable, secure than Windows Mobile.
3. Apple has managed to port all their computers on Intel Chipsets in the space of 7 months. I think that these have certainly experience when it comes to rectify and improve products. They will learn quickly from the first iPhone.
4. Whilst it is true that 1 or 2% market share will be hard to get, I see this product as an inspiration for Motorola/Nokia to come up with such great devices concepts. Maybe Motorola/Nokia will continue to sleep at night, but if Apple does what they did with the IPOD, this is one to watch (yes, this may require a couple of years down the road).
5. Price ..hmmm... If the price is low, this will hit serioulsy their IPOD market share. Whilst this is targetting to a very specific segments, Apple is also trying to protect their own successful products.

As a conclusion, Apple has set a challenge out there for existing Mobile phone manufacturers with its Apple Phone :-).
And yes, I think that Apple TV will be big.

Posted by: at January 11, 2007 06:42 PM

"Visual voicemail will raise the bar. “Wireless data” will finally be about improving the core voice and messaging product. Everyone will have to match this, although the timescale will be 2-3 years, if not more."

That seems an extraordinarily long time to implement IMAP, (after all if your voice mail could be emailed, iPhone would integrate it with their other open email services on the client. But such is the nature of standards and/or product development among competing dinosaurs, little or no horizontal gene exchange.

As for the "orifices" having Apple set the standard for voice IMAP clients and implementation, doesn't sound their cup of tea at all.

I'm looking for more on why/how AT&T achieved their C^Hsingular role in this new stove-pipe.

Posted by: at January 13, 2007 08:38 AM
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