Andy asks “what’s next?”, and suggests video as the big growth area.
My compass suggests the following developments.
1. The macro picture: growth switches from Internet services to location services to ‘situation’ services. This is stuff like QR codes, and being able to interact with the environment right around you. Why can’t you get the commentary in the museum by entering the exhibit number into your cellphone?
2. We see an ever-stronger shift to 2-sided business models. (Ad-funded is one example, but expect to see that deepen to a wider range of marketing services, and a broader range of business processes.)
3. Getting specific, I think video will grow fast, but only in certain segments, principally nomad workers and in-office.
4. Integration of Web and Telco is probably the Next Big Thing. The phone experience (address book, call logs, presence, voicemail, etc.) comes with you into the web sites you visit, and vice versa. Why can’t someone leave me a ‘Skype’ voicemail, but I collect it on my T-Mobile handset’s voicemail system? Bags of cash in getting this to work together, expect to see more 2-sided markets (check out voicemail example down the bottom).
5. The ‘user crisis’ is probably in-building coverage in the US, and presence and availability data both there and everywhere else. Something needs to let me know if you’re in a call before I press the green button, please. Or driving. Or in an unexpected time zone. We’re going to loosen up a bit when it comes to privacy.
6. All the ingredients are coming together (handsets, networks, UIs, services) for telco telephony to get some stiff competition over the next few years. Likely outcome: co-opetition, a-la Skypephone from 3/Qualcomm/Skype.
Posted by Martin Geddes at 05:54 PMTrackBack URL for this entry:
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In #1 we're just starting to see some LBS/location but still nto there yet. In that respect I feel 'situation' is 2+ yrs away. No has figured out how 2 make money yet from LBS so until the business proposition gets solidified it will be hard to move further on (bit like ALL the SN'ing systems there)
#2 more business scenarios would be good. Seems a bit vague
#4 good point. U can c the early potential with firms like iotum but still a long way 2 go
#6 I'll be surprised in we get the telco's to REALLY band together in next 3 yrs
Lal
Posted by: at May 24, 2008 11:31 PM