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      <title>Telepocalypse</title>
      <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/</link>
      <description>You say &quot;convergence&quot;, I say &quot;collision&quot;</description>
      <language>en</language>
      <copyright>Copyright 2008</copyright>
      <lastBuildDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2008 12:27:09 +0000</lastBuildDate>
      <generator>http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/?v=3.2</generator>
      <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs> 

            <item>
         <title>Bonus braindump</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>There is a long <a href="http://ecommconf.com/blog/2008/12/future-of-telecom-and-broadband.html">braindump</a> of my thoughts on the future of telecoms over at Lee Dryburgh&#8217;s eComm blog. Do take a look, hurry whilst stocks of pundit opinions last.</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 12:27 PM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001149.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>

]]></description>
         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001149.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001149.html</guid>
         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2008 12:27:09 +0000</pubDate>
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            <item>
         <title>21 days remaining</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Why do we need fibre? Check this one out:</p>

<p class="center" style="text-align:center"><img src="http://www.telepocalypse.net/images/21days.png" alt="" /></p>

<p>I&#8217;m backing up our home PC to Amazon&#8217;s S3 cloud service. After all, what&#8217;s the point of a removable hard drive backup when it&#8217;ll get destroyed in the same house fire or stolen in the same burglary as the main PC?</p>

<p>It&#8217;s been going since early evening yesterday, so about 16 hours. 3% done, 21 days to go. I think I&#8217;ll be leaving the PC on for a long, long time.</p>

<p>Note that I don&#8217;t even have a video camera, it&#8217;s mostly just seven years of digital photos. Anyone with precious memories of their children growing up can&#8217;t easily upload and share them with their families.</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 12:36 PM
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         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001148.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001148.html</guid>
         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Sat, 27 Dec 2008 12:36:42 +0000</pubDate>
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            <item>
         <title>You heard it here first</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Daddy, can you give me a real phone that can phone in real life. Then you will have to teach me how to use the buttons and do phoning.&#8221; - My older daughter, aged 5 years 4 months, today pops the question.</p>

<p>And to think I thought I had another two years to come up with a reason why she can&#8217;t have one&#8230;</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 02:48 PM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001147.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>

]]></description>
         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001147.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001147.html</guid>
         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 14:48:44 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>eComm -- up and coming</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>The next installation of the superb and distinctly unmissable <a href="http://ecommconf.com/">eComm conference</a> is on its way.  Super early bird registrations are available until 22 December, and if you use the code &#8216;Telepocalypse&#8217; you&#8217;ll get 20% off, taking the price down to 952 buckaroos. (&#8220;Hurry, while the US dollar lasts&#8230;&#8221;) Buddy and organiser Lee Dryburgh assures me this is the lowest price it&#8217;ll ever be offered at, so time to whip out the credit card and run up some credit.</p>

<p>See you in San Francisco on 3-5 March!  </p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 08:01 PM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001146.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>

]]></description>
         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001146.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001146.html</guid>
         <category>Conference Notes</category>
         <pubDate>Sat, 06 Dec 2008 20:01:09 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Delivering on the promise</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Two thoughts to highlight how far we still have to go with developing the voice and messaging offering of telcos.</p>

<p>First, I&#8217;m reading a bedtime story to my kids. Maybe I&#8217;d like to share that experience with other members of my circle of nearest and dearest. I could easily plonk my mobile in front of me and call them on speakerphone. But I don&#8217;t for fear of using up these valuable &#8216;minute&#8217; things on a Sunday evening. Rationed scarcity, not abundance, driven by termination fees.</p>

<p>Second, instead of &#8216;Push to talk&#8217;, why not &#8216;Push to listen&#8217;. Let&#8217;s say that I&#8217;m happy to allow selected people to listen in (for up to 30 seconds, perhaps) on what&#8217;s going on in my house before calling. Then they can judge whether it&#8217;s in the middle of a behavioural meltdown among my offspring (&#8220;It&#8217;s <span class="caps">MINE</span>; no <span class="caps">SHE TOOK</span> IT <span class="caps">OFF</span> ME!&#8221;); or maybe it&#8217;s so quiet the younger one just must be asleep. Each such instance of listening in is notified to me, and furthermore the audio is recorded and sent to me so I know exactly what was heard. It&#8217;s presence, Jim, but not as we know it.</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 08:02 PM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001145.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>
Thorsten Claus @ November 19, 2008 11:51 PM:<p>Haha, 'push to listen' - interesting concept, it's like an audio presence, like a reverse twitter, or more like a reverse spinvox... maybe I should develop an android client that responds to sms: you could tweet or sms "ptl" to me and get audio back, or a transcript of the audio.</p>

<p>with push-to-talk, though, you first have to accept the 'talk'. But first accepting the 'listen' at push-to-listen kind of defies the concept....</p>
Martin Geddes @ November 21, 2008 09:35 AM:<p>You would pre-approve access to selected people.</p>
<a href="http://danneel.com" rel="nofollow">Dan Neel</a> @ November 23, 2008 12:30 AM:<p>Brilliant, as always.<br />
Thanks again for the joke too, Martin.<br />
(The diggers looking and finding nothing so they discovered the past tribes had wireless, as oppossed to those diggers who found copper)<br />
Dan<br />
</p>
<a href="http://m-strat.org" rel="nofollow">Jose HC</a> @ December  8, 2008 08:44 PM:<p>'Push to Listen' ... funny. I can just picture it.  The moment we do this people start dropping in just to see what is going on... with absolutely no intention of calling you.  I can see my mother doing it a few times a day.  Are we feeding her grandchild? ... and then the call: "Why aren't you feeding him?"  "Why can't he have one more jelly bean?  Just one more."<br />
</p>

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         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001145.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001145.html</guid>
         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Sun, 09 Nov 2008 20:02:24 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>eComm -- call for speakers</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>The next eComm conference is scheduled for March 3-5, 2009 in San Francisco. If you represent or know of an innovative company or idea in the personal communications space, then this is the event to be at, and you can find details of the call for speakers <a href="http://ecommconf.com/blog/2008/10/2009-call-for-speakers-now-ope.html">here</a>.</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 04:07 PM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001144.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>

]]></description>
         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001144.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001144.html</guid>
         <category>Conference Notes</category>
         <pubDate>Fri, 03 Oct 2008 16:07:52 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Lost packets</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Have finally persuaded someone at a 3UK store to sell me a prepaid <span class="caps">SIM </span>card, topped up, and set up the self-care account. Speaking of which, why do you need to provision yourself a password via <span class="caps">SMS, </span>rather than just printing one on the <span class="caps">SIM </span>holder with your number? The whole process naturally involves putting the card into your phone, and taking it out because you didn&#8217;t realise they need the last 6 digits from the back of the <span class="caps">SIM, </span>and then putting it back in a phone, so you can take it out and put it into your modem. Then it&#8217;s just a small job to convert your talk&#8217;n&#8217;text balance into a 30 day data pack, and you&#8217;re in business. Easy!</p>

<p>So I&#8217;m now up and running with my splendid <a href="http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/02/11/review_novatel_mc950d/"><span class="caps">USB </span>modem</a> whizzing along on my train at speeds in excess of, well, half a French train&#8217;s speed, and eliminating the few remaining cells in my inner ear with some <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tsk9KtMjAVA">Aphex Twin</a>.</p>

<p>But here&#8217;s the rub.</p>

<p>How come these modems have a splendid button to press on the screen labelled &#8220;Connect&#8221;, but never one that says &#8220;Connect and bloody well stay connected, as even my dial-up model could automatically reconnect when it lost contact with the cyberworld&#8221;?</p>

<p><span class="caps">HSDPA </span>= Has Some Dropped Packet Annoyances </p>

<p>Still, it&#8217;s better than the National Express Wi-Fi that insists on randomly replacing the content of your browser tabs with the same annoying splash screen every 20 minutes (which is about how long it takes to load a page anyway).</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 07:35 PM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001141.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>
<a href="http://yorksranter.wordpress.com/" rel="nofollow">Alex</a> @ September 24, 2008 10:20 AM:<p>Hey, if you use wvdial to control it under linux this doesn't have to be a problem.</p>

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         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001141.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001141.html</guid>
         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Mon, 22 Sep 2008 19:35:56 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Falling for fibre</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m using the superb <a href="http://www.jungledisk.com/">Jungledisk</a> to back up my laptop (hat tip: <a href="http://andyabramson.blogs.com/voipwatch/">Andy</a>). Because I&#8217;ve shifted my Documents folder around on my laptop <a href="http://www.small-laptops.com/sony-vaio-tz90/">from one hard drive to the other</a> I&#8217;m having to re-upload it all.</p>

<p>Time to complete: 1-2 days for 3Gb.</p>

<p>Or to put it another way, I&#8217;m going to have to wait a month with my <span class="caps">DSL </span>line working flat out 24&#215;7 to backup my 30Gb of family photo photos online from my home server.</p>

<p>And they say there&#8217;s no demand for fibre? Well, I&#8217;m <a href="http://5tth.blogspot.com/2008/09/caio-review.html">not alone</a> in disagreeing.</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 08:57 AM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001143.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>
JC Francois @ September 23, 2008 01:29 PM:<p>I understand the point that you want to make but in this case the online storage service should really be smart enough to check file hashes and understand that you are just moving files around and not deleting old files and uploading new files.</p>

<p>Even with fiber uploading 30GB is a pain.</p>
<a href="http://andyabramson.blogs.com/voipwatch/" rel="nofollow">Andy Abramson</a> @ October 11, 2008 02:11 PM:<p>Glad you like Jungle Disk...now don't you wish you had my wife's 50 meg symmetrical fiber connection.... :-)</p>

<p>She uses JungleDisk and the SureWest fiber access which costs $200 a month to upload her patients charts and her medical notes. Sure makes it easy when her husband is always buying her a new computer....she just got a Acer Aspire One and an Asus 901 XP as well as a few Linux EEE PC's for the office...her favorite is the Dialogue FlyBook V5...of course, it's also the priciest.</p>

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         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001143.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001143.html</guid>
         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Mon, 22 Sep 2008 08:57:20 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Citibunk</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>I had the fun experience of having to call Citibank this evening to moan that I couldn&#8217;t set up an online payment. Their website was rejecting the sort code of the account I was trying to send a payment to, even though I have the recipient&#8217;s checkbook in front of me, and know it is correct.</p>

<p>Their splendid new <span class="caps">IVR </span>system allows you to do voice recognition.</p>

<p>You have no idea how much fun it is trying to navigate this system with two over-excited screamy kids in the background.</p>

<blockquote>&#8220;For an account representative, say &#8216;representative&#8217;&#8221;

<p><em>&#8220;Daddy, Daddy, she took it off me!&#8221;</em></p>

<p>&#8220;Thank you, please select a bill payee&#8221;</p>

<p><em>&#8220;Kids, BE <span class="caps">QUIET</span>! I&#8217;m on the telephone&#8221;</em></p>

&#8220;I&#8217;m sorry, I didn&#8217;t recognise that payee, please try again&#8221;</blockquote>

<p>Somehow, I don&#8217;t think this is a technology that&#8217;s quite reached the maturity level needed&#8230;</p>

<p>Anyhow, I&#8217;m about to write a report on the call centre of the future, so a few things of note.</p>

<p>Firstly, there was zero integration of the web and telephone experience.  You get a popup saying &#8220;this sort code is not valid&#8221;, and that&#8217;s it.  If you&#8217;ve got an objection to their exception, you have to start again via another channel, with all the 16 digit numbers and <span class="caps">PIN</span>s and announcements about lost or stolen cards. It&#8217;s when things go wrong that customer loyalty is established &#8212; or destroyed.</p>

<p>The next thing was a more philosophical problem that seems to afflict contact centres, which is &#8220;the customer is always wrong&#8221;. Sadly, Citibank doesn&#8217;t seem capable of maintaining a list of valid UK sort codes. Empower your employees to correct these mistakes &#8212; for example by being able to override exceptions or wonky business rules.  Otherwise, the customer gets mad. And you never get to find which business rules are bunk.</p>

<p>In telcoland, the fiendish complexity of tariffs, combined with the IT madness of bundling, guarantees a nightmare for customers. Combine that with disempowered care representatives, and an attitude of &#8220;the computer says &#8216;no&#8217;&#8221;, you&#8217;ve got a lot of churn. How come telcos can&#8217;t eat their own dogfood here? We sell voice, messaging, and web access &#8212; just don&#8217;t ask us to use them together&#8230;  This contrasts with my experience last night with emusic.com, where I could quickly have an IM session with customer support.</p>

<p>I can imagine how the web browser could be re-engineered to support a two-sided market here. Would Citibank be willing to pay Google (yeah, I&#8217;m hooked on <em>Chrome</em>) to set up a voice call to my landline/nearest phone, and to share what&#8217;s on my screen in a highly secure manner? Possibly, yes. Sadly, few people think about how their communications products can be re-engineered to facilitate <span class="caps">B2C </span>interactions. Check out a few of my <a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/000761.html">old</a> <a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/000875.html">ideas</a> on Skype to see where I think they screwed up here.</p>

<p>Another example of how silly business rules lose customers: I phoned T-Mobile to ask if they&#8217;d do me a good deal on a voice plan with mobile broadband. Apparently as I&#8217;m a <span class="caps">SIM</span>-only postpaid user, who merely sends them about £50 (US$90) every month, and never has asked for a subsidised handset, I don&#8217;t qualify. No problem, 3UK were more than happy to accept my business. What if, instead, the rep was empowered to judge my customer lifetime value, and place his bets accordingly? A year later, his bonus would be based on my profitability as a customer given the deal he offered me.</p>

<p>This all reminds me of the battles between cost accounting and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Goal-Process-Ongoing-Improvement/dp/0884270610">throughput accounting</a>, which underpins lean production ideology. Cost accounting focuses on all kinds of intermediate stuff, with various made-up and backwards-looking numbers. Throughput accounting discards most of the numbers managers typically rely on, and only cares about what really matters &#8212; which is value to the end customer. Any contact centre that measures things like &#8220;time per call&#8221; is immersed in this cost accounting madness.</p>

<p>So today I got angry when the agent at the other end followed the script and told me to contact the other bank to check the sort code was valid. Those who know me can tell you that it takes a lot to turn everyday placid Martin into mad Martin. Indeed, I&#8217;m sorry to have to report that &#8212; for the first time ever &#8212; I lost my cool with some poor lady in an Indian call centre. If she was incentivised to retain my custom, I suspect the word &#8216;sorry&#8217; might have entered her head. Instead, she stuck to the script.</p>

<p>So as a simple money transfer is beyond Citibank&#8217;s capability, my closing words of &#8220;no, I&#8217;ll take my banking business elsewhere&#8221; will be turned into action. I&#8217;m terrible at choosing banks &#8212; my business bank, The Co-operative Bank, is utterly hopeless. So if anyone can recommend a solvent, competent UK retail bank (assuming such an entity exists) do let me know!</p>

<p><span class="caps">UPDATE</span>: Ooh! A nice, apologetic man from Citibank has given me a call. You know, all you have to do is treat the customer as a human, and not a moron. The sort code problem is not theirs (or mine &#8212; blame Nationwide Building Society), but the customer care problem is.</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 07:02 PM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001142.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>
<a href="http://voicesage.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow">PaulSweeney</a> @ September 21, 2008 11:28 PM:<p>So much wrong, so much to do. :) How simple to just go "too much noise - go to DTMF"; your sort code issue just needed to know who you were at the end of the day, so we are back to your issue of deep authentication; aaaaand when something is going wrong with the process, stop, and go to a live agent. Oh and did I mention that you should be able to do all that with a pop up click-2-call, with the context of your forwarded as a "call whisper", i.e. the information gets forwarded to the call centre, from the screen session, so that you don't have to go all over that again. This stuff is here today, I know, our company does it. But there is so much more that can be done by thinking more about how online and offline will mesh together. </p>
<a href="http://www.littlespringsdesign.com" rel="nofollow">Steven Hoober</a> @ September 22, 2008 04:31 PM:<p>At least you don't live in Holland. Read this for a laugh, and a cry (too long to repost):<br />
http://catless.ncl.ac.uk/Risks/25.34.html#subj7</p>

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         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001142.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001142.html</guid>
         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Sun, 21 Sep 2008 19:02:43 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Not the cheese shop sketch</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Man walks into a mobile phone store.</p>

<p>Ouch!</p>

<p>No, let&#8217;s do that again. This time without the faintest hint of a joke.</p>

<p>Man walks into a 3UK retail store on Princes Street in Edinburgh.</p>

<p>&#8220;I&#8217;d like to buy a <a href="http://www.three.co.uk/personal/products_services_/mobile_broadband_/price_plans_payg.omp">prepaid mobile broadband <span class="caps">SIM </span>card</a> please&#8221;.</p>

<p>&#8220;I&#8217;m sorry, but we don&#8217;t sell those.&#8221;</p>

<p>How <em>do</em> they stay in business? I want to know the secret to making money without sales! Just don&#8217;t expect me to blog it when I find out&#8230;</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 06:04 PM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001140.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>
Dave Burstein @ September  9, 2008 09:19 AM:<p>Martin</p>

<p>     There were many answers to that questions here in New York/Wall Street in 1999. The key is to cash out before they catch on.<br />
db</p>

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         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001140.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001140.html</guid>
         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:04:43 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>We hate our customers</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>I know I haven&#8217;t been posting in ages, but I just couldn&#8217;t resist putting up this one in honour of the return of <a href="http://eurotelcoblog.blogspot.com/">The One</a> to the blogosphere.</p>

<p>Footnote 67 from T-Mobile <span class="caps">UK&#8217;</span>s <a href="http://www.t-mobile.co.uk/content/pdf/mc24692_nonstandard.pdf">business pricing brochure</a> [PDF] on their roaming charges (no, please don&#8217;t ask why I&#8217;m spending Sunday evening reading this stuff):</p>

<blockquote><p>Any undelivered text messages will be charged at 30p.</p></blockquote>

<p>Says it all really, doesn&#8217;t it, about the telecoms industry&#8217;s attitude to the people who pay the bills.</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 10:25 PM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001139.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>
kerry Ritz @ September  1, 2008 08:40 PM:<p>Isn't the same mentality of that grreat customer service organisation Royal Mail who charges extra to you the receiver for post you don't know or want (that is if you're dumb enough to go to the post office and pick up that underpaid post)<br />
</p>
kerry Ritz @ September  1, 2008 08:41 PM:<p>wouldnt mrs reding love to know that!</p>

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         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001139.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001139.html</guid>
         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Sun, 31 Aug 2008 22:25:33 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Bed-bound broadband</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s 1.17am.  I&#8217;m sending a 21Mb file to a printing service for reproduction for a client workshop.  It says it&#8217;ll take another 19 minutes to upload.</p>

<p>If anyone ever asks you &#8220;what on earth will people do with all that bandwidth?&#8221;, the answer is &#8220;go to bed earlier&#8221;.</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 01:17 AM
<![CDATA[<br/><br/><hr/><b>Comments:</b>&nbsp;(<a href="http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001138.html#comments">post your comment</a>)<br/><br/>
<a href="http://5tth.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow">Lindsey Annison</a> @ June 13, 2008 08:15 PM:<p>Not in Ebbsfleet they won't where the upload on the BT fibre trial is going to be limited to 2Mbps. When is anyone in this country ever going to work out what us consumers actually want? Like an early night, and less stressful days on the Internet getting nowhere fast.</p>

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         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001138.html</link>
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         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Thu, 29 May 2008 01:17:24 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Big thing next</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Andy <a href="http://andyabramson.blogs.com/voipwatch/2008/05/whats-next-in-i.html">asks</a> &#8220;what&#8217;s next?&#8221;, and suggests video as the big growth area.</p>

<p>My compass suggests the following developments.</p>

<p>1. The macro picture: growth switches from Internet services to location services to &#8216;situation&#8217; services.  This is stuff like QR codes, and being able to interact with the environment right around you.  Why can&#8217;t you get the commentary in the museum by entering the exhibit number into your cellphone?</p>

<p>2. We see an ever-stronger shift to 2-sided business models.  (Ad-funded is one example, but expect to see that deepen to a wider range of marketing services, and a broader range of business processes.)</p>

<p>3. Getting specific, I think video will grow fast, but only in certain segments, principally nomad workers and in-office.</p>

<p>4. Integration of Web and Telco is probably the Next Big Thing.  The phone experience (address book, call logs, presence, voicemail, etc.) comes with you into the web sites you visit, and vice versa.  Why can&#8217;t someone leave me a &#8216;Skype&#8217; voicemail, but I collect it on my T-Mobile handset&#8217;s voicemail system?  Bags of cash in getting this to work together, expect to see more <a href="http://www.telco2.net/blog/2008/05/bonanza_or_bust_for_terminatio.html">2-sided markets</a> (check out voicemail example down the bottom).</p>

<p>5. The &#8216;user crisis&#8217; is probably in-building coverage in the <span class="caps">US, </span>and presence and availability data both there and everywhere else.  Something needs to let me know if you&#8217;re in a call before I press the green button, please.  Or driving.  Or in an unexpected time zone.  We&#8217;re going to loosen up a bit when it comes to privacy.</p>

<p>6. All the ingredients are coming together (handsets, networks, UIs, services) for telco telephony to get some stiff competition over the next few years.  Likely outcome: co-opetition, a-la Skypephone from 3/Qualcomm/Skype.</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 05:54 PM
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<a href="http://lallylogic.startitup.net" rel="nofollow">brendan lally</a> @ May 24, 2008 11:31 PM:<p>In #1 we're just starting to see some LBS/location but still nto there yet. In that respect I feel 'situation' is 2+ yrs away.  No has figured out how 2 make money yet from LBS so until the business proposition gets solidified it will be hard to move further on (bit like ALL the SN'ing systems there)</p>

<p>#2 more business scenarios would be good. Seems a bit vague</p>

<p>#4 good point. U can c the early potential with firms like iotum but still a long way 2 go</p>

<p>#6 I'll be surprised in we get the telco's to REALLY band together in next 3 yrs</p>

<p>Lal</p>
<a href="http://tedshelton.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow">Ted Shelton</a> @ August 24, 2008 12:26 AM:<p>RFID tags and NFC in handsets are going to revolutionize the "real world" to "virtual world" connectivity.  No need to type in a code in your phone when you can just scan a tag with your phone and get the info or get a link to the info.</p>

<p>I think your predictions are too tame - this stuff is all happening already!</p>

]]></description>
         <link>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001137.html</link>
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         <category>General News and Comment</category>
         <pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2008 17:54:02 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Speaking of which, why...?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>&#8230;don&#8217;t we automatically keep, transcribe and index our <em>half</em> of all the calls we make?  After all, it&#8217;s <em>our</em> speech.  No need to record what the other person said.  Just don&#8217;t use a speakerphone!</p>

<p>Why do we insist on &#8216;all or nothing&#8217;?</p>

<p>Where&#8217;s the Gmail for phone calls?  Something that lets me search my life history of chatter.</p>

<p>PS - Skype chat search is rubbish.</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 03:06 PM
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<a href="http://voicesage.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow">PaulSweeney</a> @ May  9, 2008 03:57 PM:<p>I think the Text to Speech stuff coming out from SpinVox, PhoneTag, and Dial2do will bring this stuff to you very soon. Just look at www.twitterfone.com , search for it on http://quotably.com/home, etc. etc. Just back up your TTS on Gdrive.... and there you go, searchable phone records....</p>

<p>Oh yeah, and route all your mail through gmail, and all your calls through your grand central number, eh, I think they are calling it lifecashing?</p>
<a href="http://lallylogic.startitup.net" rel="nofollow">brendan lally</a> @ May 21, 2008 05:47 PM:<p>Martin,</p>

<p>Now that is 'something' that would be of value.<br />
Can see difficulties but heh! whats a challenge 2 some geekie guys.</p>

<p>Lal</p>

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         <pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 15:06:06 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>More media material</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>You can here me talk at a panel at eComm <a href="http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6119551826989496388">here</a> answering <em>What Will Drive Wireless Innovation?</em>.</p>

<p>For those without an hour to spare, I&#8217;m also on the <span class="caps">BBC</span> News site <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7370956.stm">here</a> today.</p>

<p><span class="caps">UPDATE</span>: My eComm keynote on re-thinking the phone company is <a href="http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8347367384471107175">here</a>.  But you&#8217;ve got work to do, no time to waste watching videos on the web, no? ;)</p>]]> 
Posted by Martin Geddes at 11:55 AM
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         <guid>http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/001134.html</guid>
         <category>Shameless self-promotion</category>
         <pubDate>Tue, 29 Apr 2008 11:55:48 +0000</pubDate>
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